Forecast Thoughts for October 21, 2010 (TX/OK)

One of the first fall severe weather setups is here, and I am headed to Southwest Oklahoma.. There are two synoptically evident areas for severe weather, with the first being across Kansas beneath a cold core upper level low. The second, and more evident, will be across Oklahoma and Texas, and this is where I will find myself. I must note, time constraints restrict my time to the southern target, so my lack of attention to the north target should not be seen as pessimism to the forecast.

Ongoing convection appears to be handled well by some short term models, and the trends suggest that storms should dissipate by late morning, allowing for surface instability to develop tomorrow afternoon. A strong upper level jet, crossing a well defined dryline across western Oklahoma, along with a retreating surface boundary across southern Oklahoma should provide the foci for thunderstorm development by mid afternoon,

Once storms initiate, impressive deep layer shear values aligned against the boundary should promote thunderstorm development, likely in the form of supercells across northern TX and southern OK by mid afternoon. As storms move from the boundary, increasing low level shear below amidst already sizable hodographs will yield increasing tornado potential. Furthermore, steep low and mid level lapse rates will allow for large hail to be a threat also.

In short, definitely a nice fall chase day tomorrow! My team will be leaving Norman by early afternoon headed for SW OK. If data allows, look for updates and live video!

Night Sky Across Oklahoma

Change of plans tonight which left me with an open evening. Made a solo trip out to take some pictures across the Norman area! I really enjoy getting the stars in there too! Still trying to learn and improve skills and shots, but for now I am just playing with ideal photos, and finding shots worth taking. The RAW files are much less grainy.. Feel free to comment!

Glasgow, MT Day 4 WXChallenge Forecast

Synopsis: After a bitterly cold start to the morning, temperatures have recovered nicely into the mid 60's with the latest reading from KGGW reporting 67. To the southwest, low to mid 70's have already been observed early afternoon. Strong southerly winds should continue to advect warm, dry air into the area, and allow temperatures to continue their climb into the upper 60's and low 70's across the area by this evening. In the upper levels, a deep trough continues to carve its way eastward across the east coast, as another trough comes onshore into the northwestern US, continuing the amplified pattern across the CONUS.


Short Term (Tonight and Tomorrow): With dry air firmly entrenched over the region, a clear night is expected across much of Montana. Appreciable southerly winds through the evening should prevent temperatures from bottoming out as they did this morning, with some locales reaching into the upper 20's. Expect lows generally to be in the upper 30's across the area. Highs tomorrow should hit the upper 60s into the low 70s. The main forecast challenge during the period will be winds, as the previously mentioned upper level energy moves onshore. As low pressure deepens across Canada, winds will shift to the west northwest behind the associated frontal boundary, and become increasingly strong. The timing of the frontal passage will be key as to the strength of the winds. The 12z model suite is a little faster with the timing of the front. A frontal passage before sunset would allow for the strongest winds to be realized, as very steep low level lapse rates would allow the mixing to occur more efficiently. Even with a frontal passage, dry air again will preclude any precipitation chances across the area.

One word of caution for forecasters: The strength of CAA ( Cold Air Advection ) is rather strong behind this cold front. If the earlier frontal passage were to occur, temperatures would rapidly fall. I am watching for the potential to actually hit the LOW for the period, before 6z Saturday, basically, it may be colder tomorrow night than it will be early tomorrow morning. While it is possible, I would not say it is probable, but something that may be overlooked, and certainly bears watching, as further model guidance becomes available later this afternoon.

WX Challenge University Of OK (Forecast - City 2, Day 2)

As part of my schooling at the University Of Oklahoma, I am participating in a forecasting competition called the "WxChallenge". This competition is nationwide, and requires the forecasting of the correct wind, temperature (max and min) and precip.

Today, I prepared a brief synopsis and forecast for the target city this week of Glasgow, MT. I have decided to share the information below, and may do this a few more times on my blog! Enjoy