Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Today (May 19th, 2011)

Synopsis: At 12z an organizing surface low across was found in the Texas panhandle. From this low, a dryline was extending southward through the panhandle of TX, while a warm front arches north through central KS then southeastward through southeast KS. North of this warm front, thunderstorms were ongoing, in response to increasing large scale ascent and in response to a increasing low level jet overnight. In the upper levels, a breaking down omega block pattern is seen, with a dominant 70-90 kt jet streak and main upper level energy sitting across the desert southwest. Moisture return is well underway, with mid 60 dew points already into south central KS.

Forecast:  The aforementioned surface features should continue to move northward, and the dryline will sharpen across central and southern KS through OK. The warm front will continue to move northward on the heels of ongoing convection, and destabilization should continue to occur in the warm sector. Thunderstorms will likely develop first across central KS in response to increasing convergence along the stationary dryline, and approaching large scale ascent approaching from the southwest. Storms may form further to the south across central OK into TX, but the environment will not be as conducive to development, as it is well displaced from upper level support, and should remain capped for a good portion of the day.

Mesoscale Environment: Once storms initiate across the target area, a potent thermodynamic and kinematic setting could provide the neccesary components for tornadic supercells. Shear vectors perpendicular to the dryline should allow for discrete supercell storms to develop and move eastward. 0 - 1 KM SRH values appear favorable for significant low level rotation, in the presence of impressive SBCAPE as well as favorable 0-3 KM CAPE and Steepening low level lapse rates, which support vigorous rotating updrafts. Favorable wind profiles and storm motions should hopefully keep storms from going through a large amount of interactions/mergers.

Targeting: Eyeballing two places right now. One would be further north into northern KS, near the triple point. Another potential target area is further south along the dryline across southern KS. Leaning toward the northern target right now, where low level wind fields strengthening towards evening could provide favorable for strong tornadoes. Prelim target near Ellsworth, KS at this time, with a secondary starting area around Great Bend, KS